Afghanistan is a beautiful country with a rich cultural history and nationalistic fervor. The moment we thought Taliban was the most powerful Authority in Afghanistan, Northern Alliance has come back to settle scores with Taliban and restore captured provinces in Afghanistan. As of now, Northern Alliance has already captured 3 provinces back from Taliban. In the article, we will try to understand the past, present and possible future in Afghanistan and how India plays a role in it.
The Future
Acting President of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh along with the remnants of Afghan National Armed Forces has announced alliance with the Northern Alliance (N.A. / Alliance) to resist the Taliban. The Alliance has old time support from Iran, India and Russia [Note for later]. For us common readers, we should appreciate that for the common Afghan people NA has played a very similar role to what Mukti Bahini did to create Bangla Desh. It may start by Taliban losing territory in the northern Afghanistan in future. Seemingly China does not care whether it’s Taliban or Pakistan in power. To create their Emirate, whether or not Taliban fail in Afghanistan, Taliban may very likely attack the southern province of Balochistan in Pakistan for access to sealines.
Why Taliban may lose the civil war in Afghanistan? And where was the Alliance when Taliban reached Kabul?
Because Taliban does not represent the people of Afghanistan, Northern Alliance does. Northern Alliance was the remnant of Mujahideen forces who helped oust Soviets from Afghanistan. N.A. were the ones who helped push Taliban last time Taliban took over Afghanistan from 1996 to 2000. N.A. as a force has been able to represent a multi ethnic background garnering support form all local tribes within the country. N.A. was instrumental in establishing the democratic government and drafting of Afghan constitution. Their Leader Ahmad Shah Massoud is a national hero in Afghanistan to this day.
We must note that the Alliance was eventually not fond of the government at power in Kabul. N.A. never attacked Taliban until now due to strained ties between the governments led by Hamid Karzai and succeeded by Ashraf Ghani. Either of the stated governments continued to make efforts to create a political edge over the N.A. which led to N.A’s repulsion from Kabul circle.
The Past: Who supports whom?
Speaking of countries, N.A. garners support from Iran as both of them represent the Sunni faith of Islam. However, when NATO forces arrived in Afghanistan Iran sensed a bigger threat and continued to arm Taliban to keep the water boiling for NATO and make them leave. From the perspective of Russia, Taliban was the chameleon due to the difference in ideology of communism and Taliban’s concept of caliphate. Taliban does pose a more radical risk to Russian influences than the N.A. Since the departure of Soviets, India has continued to support N.A. and starting from 1989 India provided them military and medical assistance from India’s embassy in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. India acknowledged N.A. after the Cooperation between India and N.A. increased once the Indian financial aid and investments to Afghanistan increased from 2001 onwards.
Who favour the Northern Alliance
Iran
India
Russia
NATO
Who favour the Afghan Taliban
Saudi Arabia
Pakistan
Iran (to suppress NATO)
China (after the takeover of Kabul in 2021)
On the other hand, Taliban represents the Shia faith of Islam and they are backed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Taliban was born as Pakistan’s solution to then Afghan Government’s oppositions to Pakistan from 1967s and as a result of power vacuum after the withdrawal of Soviets in 1989. No Afghan Government has ever acknowledged the Durand Line which defines the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. On every occasion and on every global forum, every Afghan government has brought up the illegitimacy of Durand Line, even ex – president Ashraf Ghani. Subsequently, Pakistan got funds from USA to train Mujahideen who helped oust Soviets and then these sections of Mujahideen converted themselves to Taliban and caused instability to internal security of Afghanistan.
Why Pakistan may face heat from Taliban?
Pakistani analysts, often taking a pro-Pakistani-military world-view, saw the Taliban as a strategic asset. in that view, the Taliban consisted of militant sunni extremists, composed mainly of southern Afghan Pashtuns primarily loyal to, or beneficial to, Pakistan’s geo-strategic interests. they were viewed both as Pakistani proxies opposing the influence of Pakistan’s near and further off neighbors; and as an islamist bulwark against Afghan nationalism and secular Pashtun ethno-nationalism within Pakistan. in addition to fighting against the pro-India, pro-Russia and pro-Iran northern Alliance, the taliban also opposed all moderate and progressive Pashtun groups and political leaders in Afghanistan. Extremist groups in Pakistan later emulated their intolerance for dissent among Pashtuns.
Taliban recently blocked all movement of cargo and people from Afghanistan into Pakistan
and has asked Pakistan to allow visa free access to individuals travelling from Afghanistan into Pakistan. Top leadership of Taliban directly invited by China on July 2019 for consultation and to discuss way forward. China has engaged with Taliban so as to avoid any intermingling with East Turkestan Islamic Movement at Xinjiang Province and to safeguard Chinese investments in the Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is curious to note that this meeting was bilateral in nature and Pakistan had no role in it. This shall suffice for us to observe on China’s outlook. For China, it does not matter whether Afghanistan’s Taliban of Pakistan government safeguard China’s investments. All they want is the strongest of either to survive and serve China.
What’s Taliban’s stake in Pakistan?
We know by now that Taliban does not acknowledge Durand Line which separates Afghanistan from Pakistan. Taliban’s manpower is Pashtun based. Pashtun community form 50 million in population, of which 15 million are in Afghanistan and 35 million are in Pakistan. Speaking of Balochistan, the province forms approximate 50% of the landmass in Pakistan and 50% of the people living in Balochistan are Pashtun. Given the direct bonhomie between Taliban and China and Taliban’s subtle dictats to Pakistan on governance and immigration are a sign to the way forward intention of Taliban. It makes sense for Taliban to pursue the objective of Pashtun nationalism and encroach beyond Durand Line, specifically to Balochistan. This will give presently landlocked Taliban access to Arabian Sea, Gwadar Port and proximity to Karachi.
Way ahead for India
Whichever way we think about it, whether or not Taliban thrives or suffers, a clash with Pakistan for Durrand Line is inevitable as it will help Taliban gain some political leverage. It is a tough walk for India because it will destabilize Pakistan in turn make India sit up tight. As India has chosen for a balanced approach, it is only fitting because the possible outcomes are all sounding good but dangerous in the long run. India cannot allow ethnic divide in Afghanistan so she we will continue our support to the Alliance. Any offensive on the western front of Pakistan will always make it easy for India but India cannot allow letting terrorist organizations gaining control of assets like Gwadar Port and also risking the sea lanes to piracy. Plus, India's presidency at the United Nations Security Council is to end on 31st August 2021. As itchy a wait as it sound may be, when no way is certain India is doing the right thing to wait and watch the situations unfold.
Happy Hunting!
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