What is the relevance of Jammu and Kashmir in India’s outreach to Central Asia? Why abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A is not just a political gimmick, but a necessity for international economy? Do you know that India intends to have a functional or the first operational overseas military base in Tajikistan? What is the significance of having a military presence in that area? How will it enable India to build a presence in Central Asia? Are you aware of the International North South Transport Corridor? In the forms of financial aid and grant of resources, India helped Tajikistan revive two air force bases in Tajikistan and has a presence of around 200 military personnel in these air force bases in Tajikistan. However, there’s more to than what meets the eyes. This article is an assessment of the current geopolitics and how India has been trying to increase her footprint towards Central Asia.
What do we mean by Central Asia? What is so unique about it?
It is true that many of us are not much aware about the countries in Central Asia. It is a landlocked cluster of countries, who were historically part of erstwhile Persian Empire and then the USSR. As the giants crumbled, we got the socialistic and secular countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These cluster of countries are landlocked and have no substantial large-scale manufacturing capability. These middle income countries hold with them an untapped potential in terms of trade for India and access to the blind spots of China and Pakistan. This is a point of interest for India.
Why is Central Asia turning a sweet spot and what are the ways to get there?
President of India during his visit in 2018 to Ayni Air Force Base, Tajikistan
To understand the answer to this, we need to understand the aspect of Jammu and Kashmir, the larger game at play. The civil unrest and presence of radical Islam in Afghanistan is the center of chaos causing difficult times to both Tajikistan and India. Both nations have been victim to these developments since the 1990s. It is prudent to understand that operations conducted by US led forces in Afghanistan operations have succeeded tactically, but it has failed on the strategic front. Presence of Taliban as a recognized and legal entity has unnerved Afghanistan, India, Iran, Russia and the larger Central Asia. We are aware that the undivided Jammu and Kashmir is the only Indian territory neighboring to Afghanistan. This was the prima facie reason for Pakistan to annex Northern Kashmir in the past. This eventuality is a major factor for the abrogation of #Article370 in 2019 leading to a holistic inclusion of Jammu and Kashmir into the administrative purview of rest of India. Foundation works for cooperation in strategic affairs, intelligence sharing and trade between India and the Central Asian countries were the intention of India’s Prime Minister’s visit to these countries in 2015. Subsequently, in 2018 during the visit of India’s President to Tajikistan, Intelligence Sharing agreement was signed between them on its’ outset. It is noted that India has maintained her intention to engage with Central Asia even prior to 2015, but at a very preliminary level. Also, India has recently upped the ante in all global forums on recognition of Pakistan occupied Kashmir. India has begun the silent monitoring of the maps of India printed in academic content circulated in all countries. It is necessary to do so because the global community needs to memorise that POK belongs to India. It is pragmatic to understand that when India does take over POK in the foreseeable future, the global community shall not call India to be an aggressor. This is India’s take away from Russia’s mistakes in #Crimea chapter. The inclusion of POK to India could give the immediate access by land to Afghanistan and the larger Central Asia. Any average tax payer should realize that it will cost more for India to reach Central Asia through the #Chabahar Port and #INSTC. Moving on, we will focus on this alternate route being pursued by India.
What is the intent of Chabahar Port and the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC)?
It is certain that Central Asia is the blind spot for China and Pakistan, and this area is also relevant for India on economic affairs. Therefore, India cannot keep all eggs in one basket. Chabahar Port is in the immediate vicinity of Pakistan’s Karachi Harbor. This port was developed with the prime motive for India, Iran and Afghanistan to establish a cost-effective trade route and a well-established economic partnership. This port is the only access for Afghanistan to haul cargo into the Arabian Sea. As we see, India transports all aid and trade to Afghanistan through the air force bases maintained in Tajikistan and through the Chabahar Port. This development has advanced India’s say in the issues of Iran’s trade relations for good and for bad. INSTC is a reorganized transit route connecting important trade hubs from Chabahar port to St Petersburg. This transit route is financed by joint agreement between India, Iran and Russia. This upcoming route has enabled reduction of transportation cost by $2500/ tonne of cargo and reduction in travel time by 25 days, bringing it down to 20 days, considering the route starts from Mumbai to St. Petersburg. It is certain that India may face an equal or less time consuming and lower cost for transportation of cargo by land through the Jammu and Kashmir. Therefore, India has recently begun to push the right buttons in the right places to impress the presence of Pakistan’s illegal occupation of Kashmir. Therefore, if not the best, the second best shall do.
Why is India going ahead with such strategy and shouldn’t she focus on internal issues first?
We need to appreciate that the world affairs cannot be observed by isolating events happening within and outside the country. It is a reality that Pakistan has continued to prohibit overland access to India to conduct trade and transport aid to Afghanistan and Central Asia. This is even though India had granted Most Favored Nation status to Pakistan as per WTO norms. It is a fact that China continues to construct the China Pakistan Economic Corridor through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. For any investor, such construction will raise all sorts of red flags because no sane organization would prefer to invest into a hostile and disputed territory and to add cherry to the cake, go execute in partnership with a fragile government pf Pakistan. The corridor could have gone through India. What went amiss? The average reader needs to understand the risks being taken by adversaries in and around the world and India needs to tackle the matter pragmatically with her own strengths. It is for certain that most newspapers and news show will show a report card situation in Kashmir of one year since abrogation of Article 370, focus on the matters of 5-6 Pakistan bordering districts of Kashmir, without making the average viewer aware about the larger game at play. It is true that Jammu and Kashmir have been deprived from years of progress. However, you and me, both need to realize that the unrest entering Jammu and Kashmir gets trained in the underdeveloped border areas of Afghanistan, supported by the ring masters in Pakistan.
What lies ahead?
With the larger scheme of things in mind, it is imperative to understand the strategic significance of Jammu and Kashmir for India. From the perspective of trade and overland access, India can fully engage with Afghanistan and Central Asia which are fundamentally captive and have been welcoming India, thus far. Therefore, inclusion of entire Jammu and Kashmir is not a question of if, but when.
I must confess that given the sheer magnitude of the topic, many more key details could be presented in the article. Nonetheless, all those events are also in line with the essence of this article. Thanks for reading.
Happy Hunting!
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